2020 Rd 10 Warriors vs Sharks
The player we were most watching decided to wreck our plans this week. Jazz Tevaga! He played 48 minutes off the bench but piled on 68 Points to only $6K. He comes into this week with a Break Even of 56. We expect him to build his minutes up for a couple of weeks on the way to becoming a 60 minute starting Lock forward. He played 9 games at Lock in 2019 averaging almost 58 Points from 63 minutes. He's currently priced at almost 54 Points.
We're still keeping an eye on him but miffed he didn't follow the script and dump value. The loser in this though, could be Tohu Harris spending far more time on an edge rather than in the middle. Harris scored 49 from his 80 minutes. His opening two Rounds yielded 42 and 44 from 80 minutes. On the resumption in Rd 3, he started spending a lot more time in the middle at Lock, either starting there, or starting on an edge and moving in during the game. Harris is a possible sell if you have him, keep a close eye on the situation. He's priced at a massive 63.3 Points and we have his BE at 70 this round.
Eliesa Katoa had a disappointing first week back but we are not in panic mode with him at the moment. He reverted to bench but played 63 minutes. His first half 23 minutes was very sluggish, he didn't see any ball and the game didn't come to him much. He was on something like 4 Pts at half-time. He found his groove a bit more in the 2nd half adding another 28 Points to his total. Warriors have both their wingers as well as Paasi and King Vuniyayawa who have returned home to New Zealand. There's every reason to expect Katoa to get back to playing 80 minutes on his edge. This is a situation where you don't have to pay much heed to a players Break Even. Katoa's BE for this week is 51 by our reckoning. But if he gets back to playing 80 minutes then this is a false peak. He is still only priced at 40.9 Pts. If he plays 80 going forward he can average over 50.
We had Karl Lawtons Break Even at 14 Pts which ended up being exactly on the money. He got 80 minutes in this game and turned it into 54 Points. He now has a BE of just 5, but looks trappy to us. Tevaga will likely increase his minutes from 48 to 60-65, Katoa will likely get back to 80 and on top of that this game had HIA's for both Hetherington and Egan, Blair only lasted 26 minutes and Herbert was injured after 38 minutes. We see Lawtons role diminishing in the coming weeks. Safer to look elsewhere.
RTS was headed towards another low week, but picked up some quick points in the last 15 minutes, with some TB's and a Try Assist, to finish with 42 Points. We just don't trust him this season. This game did more to cement our lack of trust than to ease it.
Sione Katoa was back at it again this week with 2 Tries, 6 Tackle Breaks, 230m and 71 Pts. His season average is now 71 and he made $1K against his 70 Break Even. Only 2.5% own him. He would have been a sweet POD to start with and sell at his peak of $604K. It's the wrong time of the season to even contemplate a rocks and diamonds winger - look to the guns.
Shaun Johnson owners should be very concerned if they are paying attention. He scored a Try and 59 Points this week - but the number that is alarming is his 88m in general play kicking compared to Townsend 233m. The only reason why SJ has jumped from a 50 Pt player to a 55 Point player this season is Chad Townsend disappearing out of the kicking game. SJ has a 65 Break Even this week. He's short of a final team gun Half even at a 55 average. It may be a good time to upgrade to the likes of Cleary and Hunt. If you own him, you must pay attention to the kicking meters split this week, if that does not revert back to being heavily in SJ's favour then you have a problem.
Toby Rudolf had a revival with 48 Points from 62 minutes. His owners may have got lucky, given Sorensen was a late change to start Lock, with Rudolf back to the bench. His PPM was below what his owners would have hoped for. Sorensen also only lasted 18 minutes with a knee issue. He is expected back either this week or Rd 12.
We don't see much else worthy of attention in this Sharks side at present.