2020 Rd 10 Rabbitohs vs Knights



We  asked for more in attack from Damien Cook and he answered the call, 2  Tries, 5 Tackle Breaks and 93 Points. 13.1% own Cook, 22.0% own Cleary,  if you own both well done. Many are finding it a challenge to get their  hands on both, especially for those that started out with Haas. Cook is  up to $937K with a BE of 64 this week.

Cameron  Murray is levelling out at $722K (56.2 Pts) with a BE of 54. His  average since moving back to lock is 55 Pts from just over 60 minutes.

James  Roberts lasted the 80 minutes but sustained a nasty pectoral injury.  He's out for the rest of the regular season. Latrell Mitchell still has a  weeks suspension to serve. Campbell Graham will likely also return in  Rd 12. Wayne Bennett has the perfect out here to move Mitchell back to  the Centres, without admitting any error of judgment. If he retains Alex  Johnston at fullback in Rd 12, Mitchell could partner Graham in the  Centres with Gagai on a Wing. Alternatively Mitchell would return to  Fullback with Graham and Gagai in the Centres and Johnston on a wing.  Either way - there is a wing spot up for grabs long term. Debutant  Jaxson Paulo had a solid debut with 34 Pts including a Try Save, Try  Assist and 165m. He had 5 Wing starts for Souths NSW Cup Team in 2019  for 6 Tries and a 41.80 Fantasy Points Average. He averaged 3.80 TB's  and 117m a game. His competition at present will be Corey Allan. Allan's  cheap, but he's cheap because he is Fantasy Mud. He had 9 Wing Starts  in 2019 for 2 Tries and an average just over 21 Points. Paulo has the  better prospects of generating cash but is a gamble not knowing if he  will get the job. We have his BE this week at 6 Points.

Gagai  had one of his bigger games, in his first Centre start for 2020, with a  Tryless 59 Points. He had 6 tackle Breaks and 194m. In his previous 2  games, both on a Wing, he's scored 49 with a Try and 72 with a  hat-trick. His price is back up to $509K (39.6 Pts). Souths have a mixed  bag draw leaning to the soft side of Centre. He's not a safe bet at  that price with no certainty of staying at Centre. And to pick him up it  would have to be as a keeper.

Rabbitohs have also lost Ethan Lowe from this game, likely for the  season. Lowe reportedly requires surgery on a disc in his neck. This  takes Bayley Sironen from a bench player struggling for the minutes to a  potential real cash cow with a possible 80 minute edge role. Sironen  has a PPM of 0.92 from the bench this season which includes 1 Try. It's  hard to approximate what Sironen could average with an edge role. He has  little recent Edge history in Senior Grades to examine. But priced at  23 Points and with a BE of 7 he is very well placed to make serious coin  quickly.


If  you picked up Kalyn Ponga coming into this Round, it was well worth it.  He smashed out 80 Points with a Try, Try Save and Try Assist against an  82 Break Even. Paying $2K more than you could have got him for this  week, is nothing with those Points in the bank. If you do not have Kalyn  Ponga - how are you getting him this week? His BE now is 54 and Knights  face the Bulldogs! He is an absolute must!

Andrew  McCullough is doing a great job of overshooting his value. He posted 68  Points with a Try Save following his last 2 games of 83 and 74 both  with a Try. He's now priced at 60.7 points with a BE of 37. We don't  think he's a keeper. He has the same issues as Api Koroisau. Knights  draw is softening. From Rd 15 onwards they play Cowboys (H), Warriors,  Sharks (H), Roosters, Dragons (H), Titans. There is way too much  likelihood of low tackle count games in that stretch. And way too much  opportunity for early finishes in run-away games. Both could be an issue  this week against the Bulldogs. Fingers crossed if you own him that he  can find a way to keep his score up this week. In Rd 12, Storm (A)  should keep him tackling and on the field. They then have 2 home games  against Tigers and Manly who if they turn up could keep him reliable. If  he can find another couple of good games he is going to become a nice  cheap upgrade to an elite player like Cleary or Cook before he starts  dropping value.

We  warned against Trading Out Bradman Best. Yes he had a huge Break Even -  but he was only priced at 40 Pts and with the schedule Knights have he  is well worth that. He put 58 points on the board with a Try, Try  Assist, 5 Tackle Breaks and 193m. Yes he dropped $22K, bot nobody  holding him has lost $22K, not unless they are trading him out this week  - and why would anybody do that?

Trading purely based on Break Evens often leads to bad trades.

Pearce  and Klemmer had respectable scores of 53 and 47. Nothing great, but  solid from 2 players that should have plenty of good scores to come.  Both should be considered keepers in our Eyes. Pearce at least should  offer solid cover as a Bench Half behind Hunt and Cleary. Klemmer is one  of the strong final team FRF options. 

Sione Mata'utia turned into quite a trap. Astute players would only have  got interested after his Rd 5, 80 minutes for 66 Pts with 53 Tackles.  His previous track record as an 80 minute edge forward is not actually  that flash. And most astute players would have wanted to see at least  one more game like that before leaping. If you picked him up on the back  of that Rd 5 game, you got a 53, a frustrating 51, with him leaving the  field and only playing 59 minutes. And then a 24, with yet another  concussion after 38 minutes. The average score across the 3 being 42.7  Pts. Apart from his HIA history and possibility that we were just  looking at a couple of anomaly games, the real worry was what happens  when Barnett and Watson come back. The likelihood of his staying an 80  minute edge always seemed low. Watson plays 40-45 minutes at Lock off  the bench. And Barnett is not going to be limited to 35-40 minutes. If  you still have him, he has to be a priority trade this week.

A  new trap has emerged out of this game in Pasami Saulo, who had a  fantastic game with 39 Points in 27 minutes. We have his BE for this  week at just 4 Points.
His previous 2 games have been 24 from 23 minutes and 14 from 19  minutes. He's just not going to get the minutes unless they have another  couple of injuries. Jacob Saifiti only played 38 minutes and has shown  he is capable of more. the likelihood of making a MINUMIUM $150K profit  from Saulo is low.

We  put Tautau Moga forward as a cheap Centre with plenty of upside and  acknowledged he does not come without risk. He put a Tryless 30 Points  on the board following his Rd 9 Tryless 32. He looks healthy, he is in a  great team, and again, Knights have plenty of soft looking games in  front of them. If he holds that Centre spot he is going to make some  great cash.