2020 Rd 10 Rabbitohs vs Knights
We asked for more in attack from Damien Cook and he answered the call, 2 Tries, 5 Tackle Breaks and 93 Points. 13.1% own Cook, 22.0% own Cleary, if you own both well done. Many are finding it a challenge to get their hands on both, especially for those that started out with Haas. Cook is up to $937K with a BE of 64 this week.
Cameron Murray is levelling out at $722K (56.2 Pts) with a BE of 54. His average since moving back to lock is 55 Pts from just over 60 minutes.
James Roberts lasted the 80 minutes but sustained a nasty pectoral injury. He's out for the rest of the regular season. Latrell Mitchell still has a weeks suspension to serve. Campbell Graham will likely also return in Rd 12. Wayne Bennett has the perfect out here to move Mitchell back to the Centres, without admitting any error of judgment. If he retains Alex Johnston at fullback in Rd 12, Mitchell could partner Graham in the Centres with Gagai on a Wing. Alternatively Mitchell would return to Fullback with Graham and Gagai in the Centres and Johnston on a wing. Either way - there is a wing spot up for grabs long term. Debutant Jaxson Paulo had a solid debut with 34 Pts including a Try Save, Try Assist and 165m. He had 5 Wing starts for Souths NSW Cup Team in 2019 for 6 Tries and a 41.80 Fantasy Points Average. He averaged 3.80 TB's and 117m a game. His competition at present will be Corey Allan. Allan's cheap, but he's cheap because he is Fantasy Mud. He had 9 Wing Starts in 2019 for 2 Tries and an average just over 21 Points. Paulo has the better prospects of generating cash but is a gamble not knowing if he will get the job. We have his BE this week at 6 Points.
Gagai had one of his bigger games, in his first Centre start for 2020, with a Tryless 59 Points. He had 6 tackle Breaks and 194m. In his previous 2 games, both on a Wing, he's scored 49 with a Try and 72 with a hat-trick. His price is back up to $509K (39.6 Pts). Souths have a mixed bag draw leaning to the soft side of Centre. He's not a safe bet at that price with no certainty of staying at Centre. And to pick him up it would have to be as a keeper.
Rabbitohs have also lost Ethan Lowe from this game, likely for the season. Lowe reportedly requires surgery on a disc in his neck. This takes Bayley Sironen from a bench player struggling for the minutes to a potential real cash cow with a possible 80 minute edge role. Sironen has a PPM of 0.92 from the bench this season which includes 1 Try. It's hard to approximate what Sironen could average with an edge role. He has little recent Edge history in Senior Grades to examine. But priced at 23 Points and with a BE of 7 he is very well placed to make serious coin quickly.
If you picked up Kalyn Ponga coming into this Round, it was well worth it. He smashed out 80 Points with a Try, Try Save and Try Assist against an 82 Break Even. Paying $2K more than you could have got him for this week, is nothing with those Points in the bank. If you do not have Kalyn Ponga - how are you getting him this week? His BE now is 54 and Knights face the Bulldogs! He is an absolute must!
Andrew McCullough is doing a great job of overshooting his value. He posted 68 Points with a Try Save following his last 2 games of 83 and 74 both with a Try. He's now priced at 60.7 points with a BE of 37. We don't think he's a keeper. He has the same issues as Api Koroisau. Knights draw is softening. From Rd 15 onwards they play Cowboys (H), Warriors, Sharks (H), Roosters, Dragons (H), Titans. There is way too much likelihood of low tackle count games in that stretch. And way too much opportunity for early finishes in run-away games. Both could be an issue this week against the Bulldogs. Fingers crossed if you own him that he can find a way to keep his score up this week. In Rd 12, Storm (A) should keep him tackling and on the field. They then have 2 home games against Tigers and Manly who if they turn up could keep him reliable. If he can find another couple of good games he is going to become a nice cheap upgrade to an elite player like Cleary or Cook before he starts dropping value.
We warned against Trading Out Bradman Best. Yes he had a huge Break Even - but he was only priced at 40 Pts and with the schedule Knights have he is well worth that. He put 58 points on the board with a Try, Try Assist, 5 Tackle Breaks and 193m. Yes he dropped $22K, bot nobody holding him has lost $22K, not unless they are trading him out this week - and why would anybody do that?
Trading purely based on Break Evens often leads to bad trades.
Pearce and Klemmer had respectable scores of 53 and 47. Nothing great, but solid from 2 players that should have plenty of good scores to come. Both should be considered keepers in our Eyes. Pearce at least should offer solid cover as a Bench Half behind Hunt and Cleary. Klemmer is one of the strong final team FRF options.
Sione Mata'utia turned into quite a trap. Astute players would only have got interested after his Rd 5, 80 minutes for 66 Pts with 53 Tackles. His previous track record as an 80 minute edge forward is not actually that flash. And most astute players would have wanted to see at least one more game like that before leaping. If you picked him up on the back of that Rd 5 game, you got a 53, a frustrating 51, with him leaving the field and only playing 59 minutes. And then a 24, with yet another concussion after 38 minutes. The average score across the 3 being 42.7 Pts. Apart from his HIA history and possibility that we were just looking at a couple of anomaly games, the real worry was what happens when Barnett and Watson come back. The likelihood of his staying an 80 minute edge always seemed low. Watson plays 40-45 minutes at Lock off the bench. And Barnett is not going to be limited to 35-40 minutes. If you still have him, he has to be a priority trade this week.
A new trap has emerged out of this game in Pasami Saulo, who had a fantastic game with 39 Points in 27 minutes. We have his BE for this week at just 4 Points.
His previous 2 games have been 24 from 23 minutes and 14 from 19 minutes. He's just not going to get the minutes unless they have another couple of injuries. Jacob Saifiti only played 38 minutes and has shown he is capable of more. the likelihood of making a MINUMIUM $150K profit from Saulo is low.
We put Tautau Moga forward as a cheap Centre with plenty of upside and acknowledged he does not come without risk. He put a Tryless 30 Points on the board following his Rd 9 Tryless 32. He looks healthy, he is in a great team, and again, Knights have plenty of soft looking games in front of them. If he holds that Centre spot he is going to make some great cash.