2020 Rd 09 Knights vs Eels

Knights
Knights
Eels
Eels

Knights

Andrew  McCullough owners were worried early, as he made a very slow start in  the first 34 minutes. Then he forced his way over for a Try from dummy  half and surged past 40 points. He went on to finish with 83 Points  following his 74 with a Try in Rd 8. McCullough's a borderline keeper  and the two weeks with Tries have really helped boost his price. He  picked up 3 Tries in 2018, 4 back in 2015, his other years since then  have produced 0-3 a season. It's unlikely you can count on a regular  stream of Try Assisted points from him. We see 60-62 as a likely forward  looking average for him, provided he stays on the field 80 minutes week  in week out. Connor Watson returns this week, Watson did not interfere  with Brailey's minutes but there's no guarantee that stays the case with  McCullough. He's priced at 57.8 now and we have his BE at a low 31  points this week. He's in a good position to over shoot what his likely  true value is. If you own him, keep an eye on his price and Break Even  in the coming 2-3 weeks. Don't lose sight of why you picked him up -  Value! He'll shortly be a cheap upgrade to players like Cook, Matterson,  Lolo, Crichton, Cleary. Both keeping and upgrading will be decent  options, but stay open minded.

Kalyn  Ponga posted a decent 57 points this week. He dropped another $51K,  that's $123K in two weeks. We have his BE at 83 this week vs the  Rabbitohs. He then plays Bulldogs in Rd 11. If you don't have Ponga, you  absolutely have to have a plan to pick him up at a heavily discounted  price after this week.

Kurt  Mann looked ripe to upgrade to many a good few weeks back, but just  kept on kicking on some how. He posted 57 Pts in a game that Knights  only had 1 Try. He has no kicking base but keeps making points with his  legs. 130m and 6 tackle Breaks in this one. His season average is now  49.3 Pts and he is priced at 47.7, with a Breakeven of 43. For those  that stayed on, you've done well, he definitely looks like he is getting  close now though.

Tautau  Moga ended up being O'Brien's solution for Edrick Lee, Tuala shifted  out to Wing with Moga playing at Centre. Moga's priced at $294K which is  under 23 Pts. If O'Brien sticks with him he could be a decent cheap  Centre option. Shibasaki is also a good chance to come back in though.  It will be interesting to see what O'Brien does with his team list this  week.

Knights  have lost Daniel Saifiti for 1-3 weeks with a PCL injury. This could  benefit Jacob Saifiti who's been a great money maker this season. With  his brother pulling up short, he pumped out 49 minutes for 47 Points.  Knights likely get Glasby back this week along with Watson, Sione  Mata'utia and possibly Mitch Barnett.

Eels

For  anybody that jumped on Jai Field 2 weeks ago, you've done ok so far  with Field posting 42 points, which surprisingly included 216m kicking.  He's earnt $104K for the 2 games, $46K short of the minimum $150K you  want to make from a player. He has a (-7) BE this week by our  calculations. Will he get another game to have a chance of getting  there? Mitchell Moses could be back this week.

Reed  Mahoney had a big week but is not really Fantasy Relevant. Matterson  found a Try and another monster week with 78 Points. The big story  though is Nathan Brown. We've had our eyes on Brown ever since the  impact of the 6 again rule became evident. It looked to us like he was a  buy after his Rd 6 59 Pts in 61 minutes, but then he got suspended -  again. We're pulling the trigger this week though after his 83 in 80  minutes against a good defensive side in the Knights. 55 Tackles and  266m in this game. Only 2 Tackle Breaks and no offloads. Firstly - his  minutes were due to Paulo suffering back spasms and only lasting one 29  minute stint. But we see Brown going forward with a 60 minute floor and  likely to average 65+ minutes, getting extra work for in-game injuries.  We think he can average 60-65 Pts from here forward. He has so many ways  he can accumulate points game to game, whether it be massive base stats  or 16+ points in attacking stats. His past PPM at Lock has been around  0.78-0.79 a season but we think the new rules could see a bit of  elevation in that for Brown. He's priced at $660K (51.4 Pts). Hopefully  his 2 suspension stints this season are enough for him to keep his cool  for the rest of the season.

Dylan  Brown posted 63 with 198m off the boot in the 68 minutes he was on the  field. He's been one of the POD players of the season. For those with  him, our advice is to prepare to get out on top. With Moses off the  field he's picked up extra points in kicking meters. He's now priced at  $720K (56 Pts) with a BE of 36. 

He averaged 52 with Moses playing from Rd 1-6. He does have plenty of  soft opponents looming though, with the struggling Sea Eagles this week,  followed by Tigers, Bulldogs, Sharks, Dragons. Without a kicking base  it's tough to average over 55 Pts. Start thinking about a trade to Moses  or Cleary in the coming weeks. No need to pull the trigger this week  though. play it week to week.

The Gutherson breakout continued, he had a 51 Pt game with only 2 Pts in goal kicking and no general play kicking points.