2020 Rd 09 Knights vs Eels
Andrew McCullough owners were worried early, as he made a very slow start in the first 34 minutes. Then he forced his way over for a Try from dummy half and surged past 40 points. He went on to finish with 83 Points following his 74 with a Try in Rd 8. McCullough's a borderline keeper and the two weeks with Tries have really helped boost his price. He picked up 3 Tries in 2018, 4 back in 2015, his other years since then have produced 0-3 a season. It's unlikely you can count on a regular stream of Try Assisted points from him. We see 60-62 as a likely forward looking average for him, provided he stays on the field 80 minutes week in week out. Connor Watson returns this week, Watson did not interfere with Brailey's minutes but there's no guarantee that stays the case with McCullough. He's priced at 57.8 now and we have his BE at a low 31 points this week. He's in a good position to over shoot what his likely true value is. If you own him, keep an eye on his price and Break Even in the coming 2-3 weeks. Don't lose sight of why you picked him up - Value! He'll shortly be a cheap upgrade to players like Cook, Matterson, Lolo, Crichton, Cleary. Both keeping and upgrading will be decent options, but stay open minded.
Kalyn Ponga posted a decent 57 points this week. He dropped another $51K, that's $123K in two weeks. We have his BE at 83 this week vs the Rabbitohs. He then plays Bulldogs in Rd 11. If you don't have Ponga, you absolutely have to have a plan to pick him up at a heavily discounted price after this week.
Kurt Mann looked ripe to upgrade to many a good few weeks back, but just kept on kicking on some how. He posted 57 Pts in a game that Knights only had 1 Try. He has no kicking base but keeps making points with his legs. 130m and 6 tackle Breaks in this one. His season average is now 49.3 Pts and he is priced at 47.7, with a Breakeven of 43. For those that stayed on, you've done well, he definitely looks like he is getting close now though.
Tautau Moga ended up being O'Brien's solution for Edrick Lee, Tuala shifted out to Wing with Moga playing at Centre. Moga's priced at $294K which is under 23 Pts. If O'Brien sticks with him he could be a decent cheap Centre option. Shibasaki is also a good chance to come back in though. It will be interesting to see what O'Brien does with his team list this week.
Knights have lost Daniel Saifiti for 1-3 weeks with a PCL injury. This could benefit Jacob Saifiti who's been a great money maker this season. With his brother pulling up short, he pumped out 49 minutes for 47 Points. Knights likely get Glasby back this week along with Watson, Sione Mata'utia and possibly Mitch Barnett.
For anybody that jumped on Jai Field 2 weeks ago, you've done ok so far with Field posting 42 points, which surprisingly included 216m kicking. He's earnt $104K for the 2 games, $46K short of the minimum $150K you want to make from a player. He has a (-7) BE this week by our calculations. Will he get another game to have a chance of getting there? Mitchell Moses could be back this week.
Reed Mahoney had a big week but is not really Fantasy Relevant. Matterson found a Try and another monster week with 78 Points. The big story though is Nathan Brown. We've had our eyes on Brown ever since the impact of the 6 again rule became evident. It looked to us like he was a buy after his Rd 6 59 Pts in 61 minutes, but then he got suspended - again. We're pulling the trigger this week though after his 83 in 80 minutes against a good defensive side in the Knights. 55 Tackles and 266m in this game. Only 2 Tackle Breaks and no offloads. Firstly - his minutes were due to Paulo suffering back spasms and only lasting one 29 minute stint. But we see Brown going forward with a 60 minute floor and likely to average 65+ minutes, getting extra work for in-game injuries. We think he can average 60-65 Pts from here forward. He has so many ways he can accumulate points game to game, whether it be massive base stats or 16+ points in attacking stats. His past PPM at Lock has been around 0.78-0.79 a season but we think the new rules could see a bit of elevation in that for Brown. He's priced at $660K (51.4 Pts). Hopefully his 2 suspension stints this season are enough for him to keep his cool for the rest of the season.
Dylan Brown posted 63 with 198m off the boot in the 68 minutes he was on the field. He's been one of the POD players of the season. For those with him, our advice is to prepare to get out on top. With Moses off the field he's picked up extra points in kicking meters. He's now priced at $720K (56 Pts) with a BE of 36.
He averaged 52 with Moses playing from Rd 1-6. He does have plenty of soft opponents looming though, with the struggling Sea Eagles this week, followed by Tigers, Bulldogs, Sharks, Dragons. Without a kicking base it's tough to average over 55 Pts. Start thinking about a trade to Moses or Cleary in the coming weeks. No need to pull the trigger this week though. play it week to week.
The Gutherson breakout continued, he had a 51 Pt game with only 2 Pts in goal kicking and no general play kicking points.