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Brandon Smith
Fantasy & SC 2023

Supercoach Prognosis

We'll start with Supercoach which we found to be a quite straight forward  decision.

Price: $478,200
Priced at: 45 Pts

Game Log

Analytics

Hooker Games (Reg Season NRL)
To Date - 33 Games, Avg 62.9 Pts, 60 Minutes, 33.3%  TSR
Includes 20 Games 2021, Avg 68.6, 50% TSR

2020 & 2021 - 12 Games, 56.1 Pts, 59.5 Minutes, 8.3% TSR

Even without Excess Try Noise from the bizarre 6 Again Fest Game of 2021, there's a clear 10 Pts Value with plenty of upside beyond.

We don't think Brandon will be an 80 Minute player, he's never had the Motor for it - We expect him to average around 65 Minutes over the course of the season.

He has an early Bye Rd 4 with his 2nd Bye in Rd 13 and could be prime to upgrade by then should he not look like a Keeper.


Fantasy Prognosis

Price: $585K

Priced at: 40 Pts

Game Log
Analytics

Hooker Games (Reg Season NRL)

To Date - 33 Games, Avg 47.8 Pts, 60 Minutes, 33.3%  TSR

Includes 20 Games 2021, Avg 51.9, 50% TSR

 

2020 & 2021 - 12 Games, 42.8 Pts, 59.5 Minutes, 8.3% TSR

Our expectation as per our Supercoach Prognosis is that Brandon will Average about 65 Minutes across the season. He just doesn't have an 80 minute motor.

If we take a look at his Hooker Games of 55-70 minutes we get:

20 Games, 49.4 Points, 64.35 Minutes, 30% TSR, with all 6 of those Trys coming in the 2021 season.

His value is looking heavily Try Scoring dependent.

For an idea of how feasible a 30%+ TSR is....

Since 2015 there have been 134 Hooker Seasons of 10+ Games.
Of those only 9 have achieved a TSR of 30%+

Brandon Smith 2021, 47.6% (21 Games)
Jake Granville 2015, 45.5% (22 Games)
Reece Robson 2020, 45.5% (11 Games)
James Segeyaro 2015, 40.0% (15 Games)
Harry Grant 2022, 38.9% (18 Games)
Damien Cook 2022, 38.1% (21 Games)
Reed Mahoney 2022, 32.0% (25 Games)
Jacob Liddle 2021, 31.6% (19 Games)
Robbie Farah 2019, 30.0% (20 Games)

Note - Since 2015 nobody has made this list twice!
In fact, since 2015 there has only been one player to play a min 10 Hooker Games and have a TSR above 25% more than once!

Reece Robson 2020, 45.5% (22 Games)
Reece Robson 2022, 28.0% (25Games)

Reece Robson 2021, 25.0% (24Games)

As a Passionate Storm Supporter, who has always tuned in close to Brandon's Fantasy Performances when playing 9 - I personally don't think he is what people are expecting.

To be creating gut churning missed the boat feelings, he'd need to be averaging around 55+, and to do that he'd need to be averaging in to the 70's minutes wise.

Looking at his Draw - Dolphins at Suncorp Rd 1 should be pumped up and reasonable defensively for their inaugural match, followed by Warriors in Sydney. After that they have Souths, Bye, Eels, Storm, Sharks taking them through Rd 7.


I'll likely leave him Rd 1, if he looks like being a week in week out 70+ minute player after Rd 1 then I can always make a Tweak Trade.

What you make of the numbers for yourself is completely your own decision though.

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